The hosts AEK suffered a 3-0 loss in Spain last week, their second consecutive defeat in this competition after losing 2-0 to Celje last month. AEK is making their fifth appearance in a European quarter-final, having once overcome a 3-0 deficit in the first leg to defeat Queens Park Rangers back in 1977, but in the other seven European matches where they lost the first leg by a margin of 3 or more goals, six of them ended in defeat. They could point to their resounding 6-0 victory over Aberdeen in the group stage last October for inspiration, but as this is the only one of their last 30 home matches in Europe won by a margin of 3 or more goals, a repeat here seems quite unlikely.
Playing in European competitions for the first time in 25 years, Rayo Vallecano seems ready to reach their first semi-final in Europe after 8 wins in their 11 matches so far in the competition. Five of those wins were accompanied by a clean sheet, although none of them were away. Still, Rayo was on point during their last visit to the tournament, winning 3-1 against Turkish side Samsunspor.
Prediction: X2 double chance, under 3.5 goalsRayo Vallecano can afford a loss here, but I think they won't and I am going with a double chance X2 for the Spaniards in this match or that there will be no more than three goals in it.
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