On Tuesday afternoon, Ethiopia and Malawi clash in what could be a decisive game in Group D of qualifying for the African Cup of Nations.
Ethiopia form guideRecently, Ethiopia has found wins in short supply in the international game, as they have won just once in six matches. That run includes losing four of their previous five games on the international stage. Their biggest concern of late has been conceding too many goals, as Ethiopia has conceded at least two goals in three of their last four matches.
Ethiopia also looks to be outsiders to make the African Cup of Nations, as they have picked up just one win from their four qualifiers. They would need to win both their remaining games and hope Guinea gets beaten in their final match.
However, the home team would also need a four-goal swing in goal difference. With four defeats in their previous five qualifiers, it looks unlikely that Ethiopia will be able to pull off the results needed to qualify for the African Cup of Nations.
Malawi form guideThe visitor's scenario is the same as their hosts, as they need to win both remaining games to have any chance of qualifying for next year's continental competition. However, Malawi has an even worse goal difference to the home side, as their current goal difference is -6, compared to second-place Guinea’s 2.
Malawi winning their final two group games looks unlikely, as the visitors have failed to win their previous five games in African Cup of Nations qualifying. They have also lost their last three qualifiers without scoring a goal.
Their recent away record in qualifying is also poor, as they lost eight of their last nine qualifiers, conceding at least two goals in six of the nine matches.
What am I backing?There is very little between these two teams in terms of quality or group position. I can see this game producing a close encounter, eventually ending in a draw.
